Portland Cement Association presents U.S. cement outlook 2010-2014 at World of Concrete
“Our outlook is not rosy,” said Portland Cement Association (PCA) Chief Economist Ed Sullivan in presenting the PCA’s “Cement Outlook: 2010-2014” at a press conference on February 3rd, held during World of Concrete 2010 in Las Vegas. While U.S. cement consumption is expected to grow by 5.2% in 2010, Sullivan noted that we will see an increase only because of the low 2009 base level, the result of declines in consumption of 27 %, 15%, and 10% over the previous three years.
The recent U.S. economic decline has led to the biggest drop in cement consumption since the Great Depression. According to Sullivan, cement consumption will increase slightly every year between now and 2014, but a full recovery could take as long as 10 years.
The U.S. Government’s 2009 economic stimulus package has not yet had the desired impact because bureaucratic obstacles have delayed the release of funds. Sullivan said this should change in 2010-11, with up to $22 billion expected to be made available during this period
Sullivan added that job creation will lag relative to the end of previous recessions: “at the end of 2012, we still won’t be at 2007 (employment) levels.” A positive development could be new spending on highways over the next few years – possibly as much as $500 billion – which would have a positive impact on both cement consumption and job creation.
Looking beyond 2014, Sullivan believes the outlook is mixed: demographics could ultimately lead to a significant increase in cement production, but regulatory developments could lead to reduced capacity.
The U.S. cement manufacturing industry generated $27.5 billion in revenue in 2008, accounting for 17,000 jobs at 167 cement kilns and 116 clinker production plants across the U.S.
The PCA was founded in 1916 and represents cement companies based in the U.S. and Canada.
Verona, 5/3/2010
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